Wednesday, July 15, 2009

Little Doubt Left

Yes, the rally is back on track. I think there is little doubt of that. A failed HS Top is a big bullish development that should propel the Qs to at least 40 and possibly higher. The financials also failed to follow-through on the downside, and my favorite financial stock, JPM, has broken above its downsloping trendline this morning (This is my favorite financial stock, not my favorite company. I have no love for the financial companies right now.)

This morning I have taken 1/2 positions in the UWM, USD and UYG. I will add QLD on a pullback if it occurs. I have covered all but 1 stock short position and have 1 outstanding stock short order. I will add to positions as conditions allow with the idea of holding to the rally peak in September/October with the expectation that there will be a shakeout in the next 4 weeks that will make the bulls think twice.

There are future shorts developing right now that you should keep on your radar. DELL is breaking down for one.

Gold may be heading back to 950 before its downtrend resumes in earnest.

What an exciting trading year this has been.

3 comments:

dave said...

Still concerned about a right shoulder on SPX daily. However, the physics-based technicals i.e., MACD, DMI, etc are turning positive powerfully.

Regards,
dave

dave said...

"I have no love for the financial companies right now.)

This morning I have taken 1/2 positions in ... UYG." ?????

Check this out http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2009/07/sector-performance-during-bull-markets.html

I left a comment. It may or may not show yet.

Regards,
dave

R. Craig Pritchard said...

Yes,

I read comment on Bespoke. I do think the financial behavior in this rally is unusual. However, most cyclical charts show the financials leading the beginning of rallies and fading, which may be why they underperform based on the whole cycle.

We may see that the financials lag on the second leg up next spring.

Craig