Monday, June 29, 2009

SP500 Stopped At Median Line

Today the SP500 finished higher but closed just below the median line (Andrew's Pitchfork) show on Saturday's post. Volume on all indexes was anemic, so it appears that the institutional players are happy to coast in to the end of the quarter.

The only problem is that there doesn't seem to be a catalyst to justify a breakout at the beginning of July. Even if the jobs numbers come in better than expected on Thursday, it may not help much as everyone seems to be expecting it.

Carl Swenlin gave a nice interview at Financial Sense Online Saturday. His current take is that the market is stuck in neutral with more sideways action likely over the next couple of weeks. He is of the opinion that the current sideways action is building a base before another move up in later summer. I rather agree with Mr. Swenlin. His analysis is usually very astute and I give it a lot of weight. I had expected a more severe pullback before the late summer rally. Unless we see a breakdown very soon, the May/June lows should hold any further weakness and provide a nice entry point for the next rally.

It is just wait and see for now.

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