Thursday, May 14, 2009

Unconvincing Rally Today

While it was nice to see an up day, the rally appears to be countertrend. Therefore we should see at least one more down move. However, it should be noted that new lows are not expanding during this correction, which is very encouraging for the bullish case.

I had mentioned previously that the period 5/15 to 5/22 would be the likely conclusion of the correction if it extended. I derived these dates using three methods. One, I add 365 days to important swing highs and lows (from last year, obviously). Two, I add 144 days (square of 12) to prior important swing highs and lows. Three, I look at the 55 day cycle, which is a subharmonic of the 10 month cycle. The first two methods yields the dates: 5/19, 5/22 and 5/23. Assuming that the new 10 month cycle began at the March 9 low as I have postulated, the next 55 day cycle low would be on 5/25. Allowing for a 2 day leeway and since correction lows often occur on Fridays as opposed to Mondays or Tuesdays, the highest probability days for the correction to end would be Friday May 15 to Friday May 22. The purpose of this exercise is not to suggest that the correction would have to end during this time frame, but rather that if we see the requisite technical reversal signals during this period, we can be more confident in positioning at that time for higher prices. If the expected reversals do not occur, then we look to the next potential time window for a reversal. I really don't get too wrapped up in the exact days, but more to the zone of time. Price lets us know when to move.

For Dave: what is JJC?


dave said...

JJC copper ETN

Copper bottomed in Dec & rallied early; great relative performance during Jan/Feb while stk mkt declined; then poor relative performance from mid-April to late April while stk mkt was still strong.

I noticed that it had a false breakout above 200e & declined to 50E while Nasdaq & Q's were rallying to above 200E. That made me suspicious that Nasdaq & Q's were going to have a false breakout, too.

Btw, FCX looks like it has completed 5 waves up from Dec lows (unless there is a 5th wave extension). Note FCX bottomed in early Dec; JJC bottomed in mid/late Dec.


dave said...


Thank you for the wonderful explanation. It looked to me like that window is going to be ON target. Think the pullback will occur without SPX .382 RT, but will visit 50E. Thus that would suggest that the recent top wasn't quite it yet.

Note yesterday $SOX/SMH was rallying in the early morning while other indices were getting hit & they closed today above both 50E & 50S.

Also, see potential H&S top for $SOX/SMH while other indices go to NH's.