Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Pullback Continues?

Either the pullback in the indexes ended today or it will extend with a rally tomorrow and another down day or two to retest today's lows to complete the correction. Volume was once again below average supporting the bullish case. However, I was stopped out of two positions today. AIPC hit my stoploss when it earnings failed to meet the estimates, and SNDK hit my stop below the 50dema. No problem - that's what stops are for.

The Qs closed just below the 200dema, which is not cause for alarm yet, but the semiconductor index needs to hold support around today's lows or it could derail the rally. So far the SOX is holding above the January highs.

Gold moved higher but not convincingly. Nevertheless I did add to my position in the DGP today. The UNG continues its stellar performance up 41% from its low.

All in all, the markets still seem to be in a normal pullback that should resolve to the upside.

1 comment:

dave said...

As you wrote on 5/7 "The likely period for a completion of a longer correction is between 5/15 & 5/22, but it will probably not be all down until then."

I posted this elsewhere on May 6:
"Sleeping with one eye open"

Is JJC a precursor ? It showed early trend strength & relative strength; it was an early forecaster to the coming stk mkt rally. However, after spending 3 days above the 200E in mid-April it fell back to 50E.

Given the trend strength that the stk mkt has shown & given the amount of people looking for a pullback to buy it's difficult to imagine the Nasdaq falling back to 50E. Nasdaq closing above the 200E was a bullish development, but it was a false breakout for JJC.

I would want to see JJC at NH's.
Just as JJC had a false breakout above 200E; so did Nasdaq (but later). As they say in golf: I went to school on JJC.