Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Poor Close

The selloff at the end of the day probably means that wave c of this correction is underway. The Qs made a new rally high intraday. That, together with the positive response to technology earnings supports the view that only a brief test of the Jan/Feb highs is likely in the Qs. Should today's high be exceeded before today's low, it would be very bullish indeed. In any case, unless something unexpected happens, another day or two should complete this correction.

Follow-up on the MACD post from April 5th:

The MACD gave a sell signal in the Qs yesterday. Using Appel's rules for the MACD, this signal should be ignored since it is the first sell signal after the positive divergence buy signal on March 12. If the MACD pulls back to the neutral line (zero line), it would be a chance to add to positions. Otherwise, we will wait until the second sell signal for an exit whether the MACD is higher or lower than its recent high for this rally.

Traders could use this in combination with the 3 week trailing stop by exiting half with the MACD and half with the 3 week stop.

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