The markets continue to correct in an orderly fashion with buyers showing up at key levels. For those who were observant, today offered a second chance to buy the breakout in the UYG as the UYG sold off to the low of the 4/9 breakout at 3.14 but closed higher at 3.62 (+15% from low). If my read of the pattern in the financials is correct, we should see at least 3 more pushes to new highs with two intervening corrections. The process should take at least 2 to 4 more weeks.
Several commentators are calling the advance from the 3/30 low in the SP500 a bearish wedge, but the smaller time frame look doesn't support that view. One of the subwaves appears to be a 5 wave move, when it should be a 3, if this were a bearish wedge. So, this may be a bullish pattern that could lead to another large breakout soon. If not, we should see continuing sideways consolidation before another breakout.
I think the best way to approach this is to add positions over time, but I would be cautious about adding new positions after May 6.
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