Monday, March 23, 2009

Still Awaiting Pullback

Today's rally exceeded the expectations for a b wave high in a flat correction, so it is probably a small degree 5th wave. Looking back at the initial rally off of the March 12, 2003 low, the pullback began March 24th and lasted 6 days. I remain partially long and am not willing to commit additional capital until we get a shakeout. It is notable that the XLF failed to make a new rally high today, perhaps an indication of a little tiredness in the rally especially considering that supposedly the rally was all about the great bank plan. However, some bank stocks did particularly well, e.g. WFC and JPM. I believe that JPM could test the 2008 high before this rally ends, although some day in the future I also believe that JPMs relationship with the FED could be its undoing.

1 comment:

dave said...

i'm not very conversant about candlesticks. Is the past two days action on CME: 1) White Marubozu followed by Black Marubozu; 2) just two long days back-to-back; 3) Bearish Harami even though the 2nd candlestick is rather long ???