Wednesday, March 4, 2009

Rally Underway?


In the broader markets, it is possible that wave 4 of (5) started from yesterday's low. If so, it should last a few days. However, I was not terribly convinced. GOOG and AAPL look ready to fall rather than rise, and it is hard to believe that much of a rally will get going if the tech leaders are not in the game. For the Qs it would take a move above 31.68 to reverse the trend, and above last week's high of 29.17 to stop out the current short position using the Monthly-Weekly-Daily method. Most of my remaining short positions are shy of the expected targets, so I will continue to trail stops lower as conditions warrant.

The above chart of TM shows a potential 4th wave triangle near completion, which has a downside target of around 40. Entry would be below the wave D low around 59.80 after wave E is complete with a stop loss above the wave E high.

One reason I believe that there is more downside to come is that I am still seeing a lot of bearish charts like the above. There is also strong overhead resistance at the recently broken November lows that is not likely to be taken out on the first try.

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