Markets followed through today including the Dow which is now approaching channel line resistance and resistance at the November 2008 low. Any significant movement through this resistance without a retest of the March lows will signify primary wave 1 is complete. For the Qs, primary wave 1 is most likely complete at the March 9 low. Any pullback here in the Qs is probably a second wave.
The one thing which could hold the bulls back is the rapid swing in sentiment signified by the low put/call ratio. However, this one fact alone cannot negate an intermediate term rally. Only price can do that.
I was surprised at the extent of today's rally, but the % gain on the Dow was lower than Tuesday's and the volume was lower, which fits with a small degree 5th wave. Thus, we have wave a of 4. The action over the next three days will probably tell us where we are. I would not be adding any short positions at this time given the market behavior.
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