As the above chart shows, the 26ema has crossed above the 50ema for the QQQQ. While the cross from last August did not work out, this is a bullish turn of events. Coupled with the bullish momentum divergence in the macd this supports the case for higher prices, which will be confirmed when the 3/26/09 swing high of 31.46 is taken out. In the meantime, it is quite likely that the Qs will come down to test the 50ema at 29+-.
Monday, March 30, 2009
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The very fact that Q's 20E X 50E gave a false signal last Aug just prior to falling out of bed, while DJI/SPX did not, made me suspicious last week, and that there might be "another shoe to drop"...THUD.
While i have always regarded the Q's as the canary in the coal mine, or the hood ornament on the car, you pointed out on Feb 5 "An interesting observation looking back over the last year is that the QQQQ relative strength has peaked with each rally. ... So, rather than viewing the QQQQ relative strenght [sic]as a bullish omen, it is probably a sign that a top in the Qs is near."
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