Saturday, February 14, 2009

Dow Squeeze Charts


The top chart above shows the Dow daily squeeze setup. The black 20 day 1.5SD Bollinger bands are inside of the 20 day x 1.25 Keltner channels indicating the Dow is in a "squeeze" setup. These parameters have been slightly massaged to work with Telechart as it does not have the Keltner channels built in. I have also found that these work a little better for me than the ones in John Carter's book "Mastering The Trade". The first panel under the price is the 10 day rate of change which is negative. The bottom panel is a %true indicator for price above the midpoint of its 14 period range. Both of these indicators are negative, which generally means the likelihood is greater for a short breakout.
The bottom chart shows the same indicators on a 2 day time frame. It is a little difficult to see, but the Bollinger bands on the 2 day chart moved outside of the Keltner channels on February 2nd "firing" off a short squeeze to use John Carter's language. The exit signal for this trade occurs when the Dow begins to lose downside momentum, and definitely, when either the 10 day rate of change or the range indicator turn positive (there's a candlestick term for this, but I have forgotten it).
When (if) the daily squeeze fires off short, the decline should accelerate.
Looking at the charts of gold, oil and the stock indexes last night, it appears that we may see gold top and oil and the stock indexes bottom at around the same time. Last year gold topped on March 17, which fits with the March 10 to March 17 dates I gave earlier. I am beginning to lean toward a later bottom based on other investigations, perhaps March 17 to March 21.
In any case, long oil may be one of the best trades after the bottom.

1 comment:

dave said...

Craig,

Thanks for addressing my questions about the phrase "fired off short". I was unfamiliar with THAT specific phrase. Since you had used it three times in a short paragraph on Thurs, i thought that it must have some specific importance.

I have previously been familiar with the significance of squeezed BB's & THEN their widening. It seems as if their widening is not enough; that that should be followed by some confirmation.

On Monday 2/9, the daily QQQQ BB's widened after a five week period of narrow squeezed BB's. That Monday when the BB's widened the Q's rose +0.33% only to be followed by a -4.09% down day the very next day. That's a tremendous whipsaw...hardly "When a powerful trend is born".

"An indication of breakout direction is the way the bands move on expansion. When a powerful trend is born, the resulting explosive volatility increase is often so great that the lower band will turn downward in an upside break, or the upper band will turn higher in a downside breakout." http://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/04/030304.asp

Regards,
dave