Thursday, January 15, 2009

Wave 5 Follow-up

After perusing a number of sites this morning, I appear to be alone in my view that there is still upside potential in this rally. Of course, price has made new 3 week lows and the macd has given a sell signal. The Cabot Tides system gave a sell signal yesterday as well. In the current environment, we should not expect a move straight down to new lows, if that should be the course. My comments over the past week have been intended to temper the obvious bearish sentiment of traders. Consider, is it likely that a serious decline will be underway when so many see it? Everywhere I read from large public sites like CNBC and CBS Marketwatch to trading blogs I see sell, sell, sell. This, to me, is not a recipe for a continued short trade. If you are short and have not taken profits from the recent decline, you need an exit plan. Then stick to the plan. The fact is that if you were short, you were probably not trading a trend following system, but a swing system or the hourly charts. Just make sure you don't try to turn a swing trade into a trend trade and end up with a loss. If I am wrong about the bullish potential, I am confident that there will an opportunity to get short in the near future.

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