Thursday, December 11, 2008

Tomorrow Will Tell

I think the markets have run out of steam here. I went long the DDM off of a nice setup on the 60min chart, but it rolled over an hour later for a small loss. I took the trade primarily as a hedge against my QID position, in case the markets broke out, which it appeared they were ready to do. Amazingly, the VIX held firm and did not break the wave c low of the triangle. Currently the futures are down another 2%+-, so we may see a large down day tomorrow. There is trendline support, but I don't think it is likely to hold.

Several markets are near reversal points, including the Euro and the Yen which also points to a reversal in stocks.

I don't know if it was in jest, but the comment on the relation between the Gann lines I showed on the Qs and heliocentric positions of the planets is interesting. I dare not talk about it too much, but I have investigated these matters. I don't want to put people off, as most view such things as irrational and unscientific. But consider this: last year the Dow bottomed on 11/26/97, topped on 11/30/07, bottomed on 12/4/07 and topped on 12/11/07. This year the Dow bottomed on 11/21/08, topped on 11/28/08, bottomed on 12/1/08 and topped? on 12/8/08. Accounting for weekends, that is an exact duplication of last year's movements with negative 3 day shift. If the pattern holds, we should see a bottom on Monday 12/15/08, a top on Monday 12/22/08 (to complete wave E of the triangle) followed by a strong down move to 1/16/09 for a bottom. At that point the triangle in the Dow will be 39 days long. The typical length of the thrust is 1/3 of the length of the triangle which would be 13 days, putting a bottom at 1/12/09. Of course, this is all interesting for context and possible turn dates, but I will not be 100% short until I see some valid sell signals.

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