Wednesday, December 24, 2008

Merry Christmas!

This is my last post of the year until wave E tops or we get a breakout above the December highs. Honestly, I need a break from the markets and 4 days will be a blessing. There really is nothing to do until next week anyway. Even if markets break below the December 12 lows on Friday, the volume won't be there to confirm it and we will have to wait for another failed rally or test to confirm.

I continue to see a number of breadth indicators that are at bullish extremes indicating that a reversal is nigh. The bulls failed to break it out when they had the chance and I think now that any break out will be a false one.

I want to remind everyone that if you haven't completed your 2009 trading plan, it is time to get started. Don't expect it to be perfect and don't expect that it will prevent you from having losses, but having a plan and sticking to it will save you so much money and anxiety, it is well worth the time to do it now.

I continue to believe that there are hundreds, if not thousands, of proven methods to make money in the markets, but it is difficult for most people to have the patience necessary to wait out the slow periods and drawdowns to see the rewards. You may have to stick with something for three to four years before you really see the benefits, and that is a lifetime for many people. Look back at the last four years. In your mind, it is as if it were yesterday. So too, will the next four years be to you four years from now. If you act with discipline and consistency, you will be amazed at what you can accomplish over the next four years. Don't believe for a minute that one bad day, week, month or year will change that. Regardless of the past, commit to those actions today that will improve your life and trading in every way. This year is over and a new year of opportunity awaits. Let's make the most of it.

1 comment:

dave said...

There's a lot of skepticism about this rally. I love that because i think this rally has farther to go. On one blogsite, with a very active message board, posters were getting short in various forms on the close Weds 12/31 - shorting the S&P futures; buying inverse index ETF's; buying puts.

The Q's sold down fast & hard after the close today as it did after the close Weds (where did that get them ? LOL) Many posters were doubling their losing short positions.

Btw, the VIX went nuts at the close.

MANY are all too anxious to label this mkt as overbought as they did early today as well as on Weds.

Lastly, the drop in TLT today is bullish for the stk mkt - flow of funds.

Regards,
dave