Friday, October 10, 2008

Will Today Be The Last Day Of This Selloff?

The Dow futures indicate an opening somewhere around -360. The last support level that remains above the 2002 lows is 7995, which is the .886 retracement from the 2002 lows. At this point, it is doubtful that it will provide much support as a full washout to the 2002 lows in the Dow appears to be at hand. At the current rate of decline, it will only take two days to accomplish, but would probably provide a terminus for Minor wave 3. The negative aspect about such an event is that we are only in Minor wave 3, with waves 4 and 5 to go.

Even so, an explosive rally is likely once any relief in the credit markets occurs.

Assuming a decline to the 2002 lows, we can now estimate the low of Primary Wave 1 down from the October 2007 highs using fibonacci relationships as described in Frost & Prechter's The Elliot Wave Principle.

Using those guidelines for wave relationships gives the following:

Intermediate Wave 3 Low (November?): 6674, 5314

Primary Wave 1 Low (March?): 6579, 5662, 4493, 2735

The last figures are a wide range, but given what has occurred over the last 7 days, we should not underestimate the possibility of the lower numbers.

I present these estimates in case any of you are tempted to believe the TV pundits who are still saying this is the buying opportunity of a lifetime.

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