Monday, October 13, 2008

Explosive Bear Market Rally

Today the indexes rallied powerfully, and I am sure many will be celebrating the end to the bear market, but the fact is that the Dow closed 3 points above my second target of 9383 and the Qs closed 23c above my first target of 34.90. The fact that it happened all in one day says more about the severity of last week's decline than it does about whether there will be follow-through from today's rally.

Typical action after a day like today is one or two pause days followed by more upside. The next next likely targets are 36.90 for the Qs and 9736 for the Dow, after which I expect the markets will trade in a range for a couple of weeks bofore heading down to complete Minor wave 5 of Intermediate wave (3). After the pattern plays out, I will discuss downside targets. Look for the 5 period RSI to approach 100, and then start looking for new shorting opportunities.

The outlook will only change if the Qs make it back above the March low of 41.17, and the Dow makes it back above the July low of 10827.

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