Thursday, October 2, 2008

CRASH WARNING!!!!

I hesitate to post an article with the above title, but the facts support such a view. It is almost certain that the house will pass the "Rescue" bill tomorrow and the markets still went down today. If that was all that happened, perhaps a rally would materialize tomorrow, but the Dow Jones Transportation Index crashed 8.72% today in what is clearly a 3rd of a 3rd wave in elliot wave terms. The Dow Industrials should follow suit, if not tomorrow, by early next week.

An interesting situation has occured with the Qs. They are about the only index that is oversold in terms of breadth. Normally this would be cause to consider that a rally would be imminent, but I doubt that will be the case if the DJIA falls dramatically. Also, the Russell 2000 broke support today as well. Any rally that occurs should be a good opportunity to get short or add to existing shorts.

This is no time to be long the market. Risk is extreme and no indication of a trend change is in sight. There is support for the Qs at 35.52, but if that breaks look for a move to 30 to 32.

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