Thursday, October 23, 2008

Another View

(click to enlarge chart)

While Minor wave 5 could accelerate tomorrow, today's action leaves open the possibility that today's low is wave b of a larger triangle or a flat. My hunch is that it will turn out to be a larger triangle for two reasons: 1) it will give the market time to move toward the downsloping upper channel line making waves 2 and 4 more similar in duration and 2) it will allow the market to hold up until the election. The added support for this position is that it would also align the pattern with the expected cycle low date in November.

If this turns out to be a flat, then we will see a sharp rally back to the October 14 highs. There really doesn't seem to be the impetus for such a rally at the moment given the overall disappointing outlook from the companies that have reported earnings. Nevertheless, be prepared for it by realizing that if you are short you will see a drawdown. Perhaps you might consider hedging as I suggested before October 10. If we do see a flat correction, then the recent October lows will probably not be violated by much, but the triangle will allow for lower lows.

For those of you interested in learning Elliott wave theory, I recommend Elliott Wave Principle by Frost & Prechter. I don't use Elliott waves for entries (for the most part), but rather to help me see the possible and probable outcomes of market action. It helps to know when to press hard and when to ease up on the pedal.

No comments: