Sunday, September 14, 2008

2001 Redux

The current pattern in the Dow is eerily similar to the pattern of 2001. I am not in anyway suggesting that there will be any kind of terrorism, just that the price pattern is similar with about a 1 to 2 week lag. If that is the case, then we can expect an acceleration of the downtrend once the July 15 lows are taken out which should occur within the next 10 trading days. If the Dow moves above the August highs prior to that event, then the similarity would be negated.

Including the breakdown day of 8/30/01 that selloff took exactly 13 trading days to reach a climax. The difference this time is that if it occurs, I think any bounce from the first climax will fail leading to a retest or lower low that occurs sometime in November. On that basis we might see the first climax low from October 1 to October 15. October 13 is a holiday so October 14 to 15 looks like a strong possibility.

This is all speculation, of course, so let's wait and see what happens first.

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