Saturday, June 7, 2008

QQQQ Double Top

(Click To Enlarge)

The Qs are setting up almost identically to the 10/31/07 top with a negative divergence. The current top is also a double top. From the 8/16/07 low to the 10/31/07 high was 53 trading days. From the 3/17/08 low to the 6/5/08 high is 56 trading days. Of course, such comparisons rarely play out in the exact same manner, but if it were to do so, we can expect a decline to 44.71 in 8 to 17 trading days depending on where you count the low last November. There is support at the downsloping trendline which may hold it above that level.

After the June low, we might expect a similar 4 week+- rally followed by another severe decline into the 9 month cycle low in November. The last 9 month cycle low was January 24, 2008. (As a side note, the 9 month cycle is really 10 months on average. This fact allowed me to predict the last 9 month cycle low to be January 16, 2008 just 6 trading days ahead of the actual low.) Currently, we are on the downside of the 20 week cycle which is the 9 month half-cycle due to bottom around June 24. The strength of the next rally will indicate whether the fall decline will be mild or severe.

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