Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Pullback Complete?

The pullback from the April 7 high of 46.41 in the Qs likely completed yesterday, 4/15/08, in a ABC correction at .05 below the 50% retracement of the rally from the March 17 low at 43.73. If so, a measured move from the correction low would give a target of 49.04 in as little as 3 weeks. However, I suspect that the correction from 4/7/08 may extend into a large sideways consolidation lasting 1 to 2 more weeks, afterwhich it will probably move to the above target zone.

Leading stocks are holding up quite well, but if you scan through the Nasdaq 100 and other large cap indexes you will see a large number of stocks are still in strong downtrends. In other words, this rally is probably a fake, being supported by only a few stocks.

Regardless of all of the above ruminations, the trading systems are our guide, and the current status is mixed.

Note: GRMN is down 14.3% from its breakdown point from the "Ending Diagonal Triangle" discussed previously. If short, caution is advised here as a strong countertrend rally may be on the horizon. A positive macd divergence is developing.

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