Today's selloff in the afternoon session, presumably on a negative reaction to the Fed decision, has brought out the bears again. However, a review of seasonal tendencies shows that there is a sharp selloff in the afternoon on April 30 more than 60% of the time. This selloff is usually reversed strongly on one of the strongest up days of the year - May 1. May 1 has been positive every year this decade except 2006. The weak May 1 that year portended a sharp selloff.
From a technical perspective, all systems are still long and only a move on volume below 45.93 in the Qs and 12,656 for the Dow would derail this rally. It is more likely that a short term top will be seen sometime next week. If it happens that today was the high with a sharp selloff tomorrow, then that would be particularly bearish. Otherwise, the longs have it.
Tomorrow, I will introduce a new system and review the charts of the Dow and Garmin.
Stay disciplined and you will succeed.
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