Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Bull Trap In Play?

First things first. There was a question in the comments about trading the SKF, which is the double inverse ETF of the financial sector. Trading any of the double return ETFs can be extremely risky as the correlation is not always twice the underlying. When volatility increases, the ETF can move more than double the underlying due to the derivatives used to give the double return. So, you must take this into account in your position sizing.

The SKF did bounce off of support and gapped up to a new high on Monday's open. However, it has collapsed back down to the same support level and is in danger of breaking down. At this point only a solid close above 130 would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

The indexes had large gains today, but the downtrend has not been reversed. Only the Dow has closed above last week's high and volume declined from Monday. It is now facing resistance at its 50dema. It is too early to call a new uptrend. The Tides and the VLE are still in downtrends. If there is another solid gain next week, then a new intermediate uptrend may be in force. Until then, I am holding short, painful as it is.

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