Sunday, February 3, 2008

VLA Buy Signal

The VLE closed above its 25dema and the 25dema has risen two consecutive days. It had already exceeded the 4% close from the recent low. This is a signal to exit short positions in the QQQQ and go long on Monday's open. Will this signal ultimately be profitable? Only time will tell, however, consider the savings in emotional capital spent worrying about whether this is the bottom or is this an Elliott Wave (1)(2) 1 2 setup for a crash. Personally, I was preparing for a crash, but I don't see it now. Many elliotticians are saying this is it. There are others saying that this correction was an (A)(B)(C) setting us for new bull market highs. I not sure I believe that either. Elliott wave can be very useful in providing a framework for market potentials, but one should not get locked into one's expectations. Ultimately, this will lead to a great deal of lost opportunities and frustration. If the market is going to crash, we will get a sell signal. Perhaps it will be a bit late, but so what, if the market continues higher we will already be long instead of being stopped out of a wrongway short and then debating whether we should reverse and go long.

No comments: